4 Comments
User's avatar
Leon Liao's avatar

China’s electric heavy-truck market has crossed a genuine commercial tipping point.

In China, a standard-load electric heavy truck costs roughly RMB1 per kilometre in electricity, compared with RMB2.5–3 for a diesel equivalent. Electric trucks already enjoy a clear total-cost-of-ownership advantage in ports, steel mills, mines, short-haul operations and fixed-route transport. Regional haulage is approaching broad cost parity, while the economics of long-distance trunk routes still depend heavily on annual mileage, charging efficiency, payload and electricity prices.

The rise in diesel prices in 2026 has widened that advantage further. At current fuel prices, GL Consulting estimates that, over one million kilometres, the combined purchase, energy and operating costs of an electric heavy truck could be only half those of an equivalent diesel vehicle. That figure is based on a high-oil-price scenario, but the direction is increasingly clear: electric trucks are beginning to sell on their economics, rather than relying primarily on subsidies.

Truck buyers may place little value on brand image, but they will pay for attractive financing, dependable residual values, shorter repair times, reliable spare-parts supply, compatibility with fleet-management software and a ten-year record of operational reliability. Market share will ultimately be determined by after-sales networks, leasing and financing, residual-value management and local operating capabilities.

This is why BYD is expanding its commercial-vehicle plant in Komárom, Hungary, tripling its local capacity for electric buses and trucks.

Tom Gunn's avatar

No mention at all of Tesla's Semi -- what ignorance and arrogance. Get your head out!

Andrew Marsh's avatar

There are a number of issues around Tesla 'Semi'. First, the payload continues to be a mystery. Then there's the long delays that seemed to be caused by a relatively unadventurous suspension system. 'Semi' could well be better off as a branded entity built by a third party using Tesla software / hardware.

In all other respects 'Semi' has the same issues of operator trust as any other new Class 8 market entry.

The overall BEV truck issue centres around the driveline - traction motor on axle or on chassis. Dynamically the better answer is the latter, but the unsprung weight is problematic for road damage. However, for powertrain integrity the answer is the integration into the axle unsprung mass.

As the article points out, truck (Class 8) market dynamics are much slower then passenger vehicle markets, and the product is expected to work flat out for at least 10 years with nothing more than planned maintenance... before going off to Africa / South America to do it all over again, without maintenance.

Alan's avatar
Aug 3Edited

Maybe you’re the one who neeeds to put your head out… 😄